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FAIR VALUE
The concept of fair value in any currency is largely that of CBers and economists and not much about trading. Almost always currencies overshoot from the fair value areas some 20-30% in their medium-term trend and what makes all hard currencies range in reasonable areas overtime since we had this floating regime in 1971 must the ability of relevant CBs to control the currency ranges and their real economy's weakness or strength to support those ranges. ECB folks were not joking when they said Eur/usd was some 25% undervalued from the fair value when Eur/Usd was below parity levels two years ago. Same goes for BOJ when they were saying Yen was some 10-20% overvalued when it was trading around 100 some three years ago too. That is how these folks view the markets and try to guide the market. Of course, when US Treasury folks say "Dollar is still strong" when it is falling, they are begging the market to sell more dollars
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FX traders include governments, corporations and fund managers doing business with foreign countries, that need to exchange one currency for another, and speculators who seek to profit from price movements in the markets.

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Corrections may take days or longer to complete. Good quality info is everything in this game. Bottom picking in the Usd/Jpy is the Mother of all risky trades. We learn how to trade till we stop trading and we learn from each other everyday. That is the beauty of trading and life in general.

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Forex Knowledge
Through studies and research, a trader faces the task of making decisions to put this knowledge and system into practice. Then, how many traders can honestly say they can commit their ranch when the trade is suggested by their own system (given that trading is just a chance game) and let the profit run for weeks and months when their system tells them, and how many can manage to cut the loss as a routine process when the situation arise. It all sounds so easy when saying it but so difficult when doing it affecting real money in the market. I still do not sleep well when I am running position because even if the profits are running into a few hundred dollars and the system is telling you to carry on, there is no guarantee that the profit will turn into a yard or two in a month time, and it may even turn into a loss in a day or two when something unexpected happens. A painstaking process in real sense. The pain is not knowing what will happen in the future and in fear of losing. So at the end of the day, assuming one has decent trading system and market knowledge and decent info, it is ultimately how disciplined and how well that trader can take the pain of making right decisions at the right time that decides the outcome of the trades. Hence I call trading a mind game.

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For position traders, the basic bias of the market in his trading time frame, the liquidity situation of the market in that time frame, and the size of trading positions must be all taken into account when exercising stops, be it based on tech levels or a certain sum of money or a percentage of a total equity. It is a must but also it is form of art like trading itself. And every trader must develop his own unique style of using stops. But unfortunately, all this can be learned only by paying a certain amount of tuition fee to the market.

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The primary factors influencing exchange rates include the balance of payments, the state of the economy, implications drawn from chart analysis as well as political and psychological factors.

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Any broad-based economic conditions can cause a sudden and dramatic currency price swing if such conditions are seen to be changing. This is a key concept because what drives the currency market in many cases is the anticipation of an economic condition rather than the condition itself.

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